20 Sep USD CAD Long Set Up Now in Play
Following on from my original USD:CAD analysis the factors I was looking for to confirm this trade have now given confirmation and I entered a long position today.
As discussed in the previous analysis, the (green) 4 hourly 200 MA has now been properly tested and price rallied beyond it:
The daily chart is also sensitive to it’s 200MA and the following chart clearly show’s it’s ability to define bull and bear markets:
Price could well remain in this choppy pattern for a while before truly breaking the nearby resistance marked by the horizontal line converging with an old fib level, therefore I will be watching the intraday chart and if signs of weakness become apparent I may close part or all of the position with a view to re-entering on pull backs.
A true failure of this new up trend will be marked by a break back below the 200 MA on both 4 hourly and daily time frames, in which case, I’ll scrap the bullish idea altogether.
In the meantime, my stop loss is set just below 0.9846 and I would like to see an hourly close above 0.9951 within 24 hours otherwise I may start to lose short term confidence in the position.