Throughout this Week I've stood by the notion that Indices may be near to forming a top ahead of a decent correction. Although that's speculation I remain committed to monitoring charts ahead of the trading possibility that will follow.
The USD:CHF swing long remains intact but more interesting than the trade itself is the fact that the USD remained strong in general against some of the large one day rallies we've seen across Indices - another potential market topping sign.
As you will know from previous posts I've been following and trading USD:CHF a fair bit recently.
The previous Swing long detailed hereand analysed here was closed out due to the lack of evidence that the upside move could gain further traction. Price did chop around a bit after closing that position, but ultimately did continue the upside move.
This is yet another Week where I have to begin by apologising for the lack of updates!
In last Weekends review I suggested the likelihood for retraces in Yen pairs, and they did retrace. I suggested Euro pairs may pull back from resistance, and they did. I also proposed the possibility of a pull back across Indices, predominantly in the form of a high volume single day flush, and we had that too, albeit not in the 2% region as I'd hoped.
For day trading its been a great Week, but somewhat quieter for swing trading. The majority of FX pairs I've been watching ended the Week pretty much where they started having just chopped about within ranges. A few pairs made larger moves but those moves were not really obvious before hand and some of them were from ongoing longer term trends that didn't offer the ideal buying/selling supports/resistances that I tend to look for.
Just flicking through the charts tonight and I happened to notice the Euro is at or very near some major long term resistance levels across nearly all its pairs.
On its own this scenario is no guarantee of a reversal but its a solid sign that there will likely be some good trades from most of these charts sometime in the near future. Whether those trades are on the long side following breakouts or on the short side following confirmation of price rejection is unclear at the moment so the key is to watch for clues ahead of trading the strongest/weakest one of the lot. EUR:NZD isn't pictured here as it's arguable whether its currently at resistance but it could be the pair to watch for clues because EUR is generally its weakest against the NZD so a break down would be accelerated on this pair, whilst a break up could be a great indicator of Euro strength ahead of entering a long Euro position on one of the pairs listed below.
It was my intention this Week to spend a fair amount of time studying and analysing the Markets in order to plan a good few swing trades. Unfortunately that never happened and with the failure of my main PC, I actually went 2 days without even looking at the Markets, instead, spring cleaning the House whilst waiting for a new PC to arrive!
Although I missed some great day trade setups on Indices, the USD:CHF long sat in the background accruing a fair few pips and only now have I had a chance to take a closer look at the chart.
No new swing trades were taken this Week as not a single set-up on my watch list created conditions that fitted with my pre-planned analysis.
Quite amusing was the USD:CHFset-up I'd been watching that not only ignored potential support areas I'd identified for a possible swing long, but literally crashed through them as if they didn't exist!
You may remember the recent USD:CHF analysis where I'd been tempted with a swing long position but didn't get a chance to enter the trade at my ideal risk/reward levels due to other commitments.
Since then I've continued to watch it develop as price retraced 61% of the move. The question is, is USD:CHF still a viable swing long?