25 Oct New Swing Trade – Short NZD CHF – Some Upside Risk
It’s not the best looking Swing Short Set-Up and there are risks to this trade, but it’s one of the better looking chart’s at this precise moment in time so I’ve decided it’s a risk worth taking.
NZD:CHF was on my Watchlist as a possibility for a long entry, but it’s failure to show strength combined with weakening MACD has reinstated my original view that it could still be at the top of a retrace of a very long term down trend.
Entry was taken around an hour ago as the 4 hourly candle got rejected by both the 100MA and the 50MA. MACD has shown negative divergence, and the original down trend line on the Daily/Weekly charts does still appear to show some significance.
Chart defining the entry:
Daily chart showing channel rejection and an ideal first target:
Weekly chart show’s converging MA’s just above the old down channel which could present upside risk as I feel a retest of these is likely at some point over the next Month or 2 and therefore unless it really starts progressing downwards it’s unlikely to be a long term trade:
It’s a trade that I’ll probably need to keep an eye on in order to get out quickly if things start looking bullish again. There is a good chance I’ll get frightened out of this trade, but all in all the higher short term probability is that we’ll see a little more downside.