GUEST POST: NZD USD Swing Short Set-up Analysis

GUEST POST: NZD USD Swing Short Set-up Analysis

Here is a really nice short set-up on NZDUSD that I have found.

The first chart shows confluence of:

1) A previous area of support and resistance.
2) The 55 and 200 ema’s.
3) 38.2 % fib retracement from the peak printed on August 1st.
4) 50% fib retracement from the peak printed on August 31st.
5) 0.8000 round number.

Short entry can be on the break of 0.7855 or on a retest of the 0.8000 level with a stop at circa 0.8075.

First target would be the low that was printed on 4th October (circa 0.7500 – note another nice round number).

Second target would be the 161.8% fib extension of waves 1 and 2 which just happens to coincide with the low that was printed on March 16th of this year (circa 0.7147).

Please note, waves 1 and 2 are for labelling purposes only and are not suggestive of any Elliott Wave counts.

9 Comments
  • ematrader
    Posted at 14:30h, 21 October

    Short at 0.8000 with a stop at 0.8150 to allow a bit of wriggle room.

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  • gaff rigged
    Posted at 00:08h, 23 October

    see your stop is 0.8150: if i was a bull i’d want to take out .8064 before coming up against good resistance at 0.8120 – already hit 0.8064 so 2nd try to the .8120 and .8154 50% Fib ? n’est ce pas ?

  • ematrader
    Posted at 16:36h, 24 October

    I would agree gaff rigged. PA is looking strong at present and I suspect that the 50% level of waves 1-3 may get tagged (61.8% level of wave 3). My stop isn’t a hard stop and I have positioned myself to allow me extra room if required so will monitor PA around that area. It certainly looks bullish at present. Looking at the monthly chart there was a tweezer top formation in the first part of 2008 at approximately 0.8215 so it wouldn’t surprise me to see price extend as far as that.

  • gaff rigged
    Posted at 01:20h, 26 October

    you doin’ good, not far off first target ! cheers

  • gaff rigged
    Posted at 01:24h, 26 October

    sorry got that target wrong, long way to go

  • ematrader
    Posted at 07:55h, 31 October

    For the purpose of transparency I have held my NZDUSD short position. I shall continue to monitor and update the blog accordingly.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:42h, 31 October

    Took me a while to see it, but this is starting to look interesting and has just knocked itself up a few pegs on my watchlist!

  • ematrader
    Posted at 08:01h, 01 November

    A retest of 0.8170 ish could provide a cracking R:R short opportunity and would tie in nicely with the 1-2-3 reversal that I’m looking for to swing short on EURUSD.