This Week played out completely opposite to last Week in the sense that the few day trades I took gave excellent returns whilst the Swing Trades underperformed.
We saw a fair level of volatility across various Markets which is great for day trading but I’d have to say of all the potential swing trade set-ups I’d been watching, those I took were generally the wrong ones.
The Gold Swing short appeared to be playing out pretty much how I expected, bobbing around between a small profit and a loss. I planned to assess the trade in more detail Thursday evening, but unfortunately FOMC got there first and having seen a profit on the screen earlier in the day I was amazed to log in that evening and see I’d been stopped out for a $58 loss.
The EUR:USD and EUR:GBP shorts started off great and it was nice to wake up this morning to see a combined 115 pip profit but sharp intraday reversals wiped that out relatively quickly and these positions go into the Weekend showing a combined 90 pip loss. Based on my own system EUR:USD is very close to giving a long term Buy signal on the daily time frame and I’ve used this as the basis of my stop loss.
Indices look ugly in general but we’ve seen them looking ugly plenty of times before and renewed strength appears to come out of nowhere. I entered a DOW channel support long today as a day trade, took profits on half and continue to hold the 2nd half as a swing trade but in view of bearish technicals I’ve placed the stop loss at break even as I don’t have much confidence in the position. If we gap up and run next Week that will be great, but that doesn’t look realistic based on the charts, it’s literally just the hourly channel that’s keeping me in the trade. That position goes into the Weekend showing a tiny 21 pip gain. Although the picture looks bearish from a technical view point, statistically things look quite bullish going on analysis from Trading The Odds which can be found here.
Another chart that looks ugly is USD:CAD, but I was amazed to see my system gave a buy signal right at the low of the day on multiple time frames. The chart doesn’t look attractive from a long point of view, but on the basis that my system is right more often than it is wrong and the fact that I can run the trade with just a 35 pip stop loss I thought what the heck and just entered it with a small position. The position goes into the Weekend showing a 3 pip profit! I’m probably not going to post any analysis on it because there isn’t much to say about it.
Other than that there isn’t a lot out there that looks attractive at the moment though there are a few charts that closed the Week at major support or resistance but no obvious clues as to whether these levels will hold. I may post a few up over the Weekend but can’t really give a definitive outlook without a day or 2 of further price action. The best moves from my Watchlist this Week turned out to be the ones I never took!
If you haven’t noticed it yet make sure you have a look at the Streaming Live Charts I’ve provided which offer live interactive charting on all the major Indices, FX pairs, Commodities and 100’s of stocks, complete with all the major indicators. It’s a great way to quickly check up on the Markets from the Office when you don’t have access to your own charting package and even better for those who don’t have their own charting package. I intended to put the charts in the Window at the top of the Home page but the coding kept breaking the page when using Internet Explorer 9 so I opted to create a dedicated page. I hope you find it useful.
In the meantime have a great Weekend and lets hope next Week can bring some new set-ups I can be confident about!