15 Jul Weekly Swing Trading Round-Up 14th July 2012
Finally a little bit of action this Week that resulted in a decent trade.
The Week started with my main focus still on GBP:CHF having previously been stopped out of a swing long position that can only be attributed to poor stop loss placement. The risk/reward ratio for a swing long entry had somewhat deteriated following the rally at the latter part of last Week so although my interest remained in the pair, I took the decision to day trade the long side each day based on shorter time frames closing out so as not to be exposed overnight. The strategy worked well and resulted in a profit taken on 2 days and break-even on a 3rd.
USD:JPY was also a hot candidate for a swing short entry but market rumours of a possible BOJ intervention put me off the trade, bearing in mind the last rumour came to fruition, although fortunately I was on the right side of that trade (GBP:JPY). Technically the trade is still valid so it may be one that I’ll reconsider using a guaranteed stop loss.
The most convincing set-up seen this Week has to be the DOW long following a falling wedge break-out. Technically almost every time frame had multiple reasons supporting the trade, the main risk being that it was a long trade in what at the time was a down trend. The suggested 200 points upside was delivered in less than 24 hours, so, I banked it, although resistance in the 12,760 region shows signs of being ignored by the market meaning we’ll probably see further strength going forwards and a potential re-entry may become a possibility.
July has previously proven itself as a Month that offers major trend reversals or significant tops/bottoms in Indices. If that trend reversal is to the upside, then last Week’s low could stick for some time. No confirmation to suggest this is the case just yet.
Going forward, I’ll scan through some charts tonight and hopefully find something worthy of discussion, so watch this space.