22 Oct This Weeks Trading Round-Up Inc. DOW, FTSE, Cable (GBP:USD) Trades
What a tough week it’s been from a swing trading view point!
Woke up Monday morning, checked through the Watch list and the set-ups were coming together nicely, but by Monday afternoon everything seemed to be falling apart and I had one of those days where I started thinking all my TA posted last Weekend was a complete waste of time!
This was compounded by the fact that I received a fair amount of criticism for the DOW 11,750 and 11,910+ calls, but as I looked at the charts intraday, despite the relatively heavy sell off on Monday, the technical picture for those highs wasn’t really damaged at all. 11,280 was the big level to watch as it had previously proven itself as tough intraday S/R, and sure enough it did provide solid support.
In today’s morning session I watched this FTSE triangle for clues, and sure enough we got the breakout (and a bullish W):
Then in the afternoon session I entered a DOW long position, noting the positive MACD divergence at the channel lows and realised that this channel provides an additional factor contributing to the ultimate 11,910 + target for the current rally:
In last weekends “Watchlist” post I discussed how Cable was very likely to rise to 1.5980 but I was unsure as to how this would materialise so it was a case of watching intraday for clues:
The most likely direction became apparent on Thursday when we saw Positive MACD divergence on the hourly time frame – a rare occurrence to see this form inside one trading day. This was accompanied with an ascending triangle which made the bullish intentions clear:
The breakout soon followed and did so with some real power in this afternoon’s session:
However, the target 1.5980 was achieved in double quick time and I’m now guaging this area for weakness in view of a possible swing short entry. The next direction may take a few days to become clear from here, but I’d probably look to enter short on any spikes above 1.5980 but only if other factors confirm. The daily chart shows the picture clearly:
Another thing I’ve been doing recently is plotting charts on my trading performance with a view to finding out if there are ways of recognising when my performance is becoming bearish so I can reduce stake sizes or increase stake sizes if the pattern looks bullish. It’s just a bit of fun really but it will be interesting to see if I can learn a few things about my performance from it. Initially I looked to chart it based on points won or lost but because some Indexes move more points than others (FTSE moves half of DOW for example), I decided it would be a lot easier to just base it on my total account balance though I’m yet to work out a way to smooth out the data from when I make withdrawals (indicated by a “W” on the chart).
Anyway, I found it really interesting that even my trading performace moves in channels and creates bullish or bearish patterns that actually seem to follow through as technically expected. It was nice to see a bull flag formation and even nicer to finish this week on a triple top breakout:
It’s going to be a busy Weekend for me but I’ll do my utmost to run a ruler over the watchlist again to see what’s ripe for the taking in next weeks trading. I did short USD:CHF (detailed in last Weekend’s Watchlist Post) early in the week but closed the position tonight (for 101 points) so as to go into the Weekend without any worries in view of the dragging Euro situation that has been spiking the market all over the place from one rumour to the next. I’ve also finally closed the long term AUD:NZD swing long for a 367 point gain. My ultimate target has not yet been achieved, however, I feel the rally is stretched enough to ensure a pullback to re-enter the position at better levels in the future.
2 final things before I sign off.
Firstly I would like to point out that all of the information provided within this blog is Copyright protected and licensed. If you would like to reproduce any of the information within this blog please have the courtesy to ask first by posting a comment under one of the posts and I will reply accordingly. Stealing my content and publishing it elsewhere or charging subscribers to view it is not acceptable and I will track down and take action against those who do this. I’m happy to put the work into this blog completely free of charge. I am not happy when people take my work without asking and then try to profit from it and publish it elsewhere claiming the work to be their own and without providing reference back to this website.
Finally, I would like to say thank you to ematrader for the Guest Posts and analysis on GBP:CAD and NZD:USD which he provided this week. ematrader is a great swing trader and knows his stuff, yet although he uses the same TA as I do, he tends to apply it in a different way and seems to find some fantastic trades that I would never have spotted otherwise. What’s more interesting is that I recently closed a short on GBP:CAD so his bullish analysis coinciding with that is something I’ll keep an eye on. For NZD:USD I had a slight bullish bias overall so it will be interesting to see how his bearish view plays out. I look forward to him posting more analysis going forward.
Time to sign off, have a great weekend and thank you for following the blog.