06 Oct This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up GBP:CAD And DAX; 6th October 2013
Being committed elsewhere on Friday I didn’t even log into my account so you can imagine the shock when I logged in after market close to see GBP:CAD that had been showing a +300 pip profit now showing a -160 pip loss! It’s unbelievable how much damage can be done to a great trade in a single day, and I absolutely didn’t see it coming.
For GBP:CAD I had been targeting a fib level on the Daily chart in the 1.7070 region but hindsight suggests I possibly should have been watching this rising wedge on the 4 hourly time frame where for now the break-out is deemed to have been a fake-out:
I will still continue to hold the trade based on the analysis I carried out on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames, but if we see a back test of the lower trend line and price gets rejected, I’d seriously consider exiting the trade with a view to re-entering nearer 1.6200
The DAX trade hasn’t been quite so bad and continues to show a profit of around 150 pips. It’s clear that DAX has remained the strongest of all major Indices and that supports my reasons for taking the trade in the first place. Again, that trade was taken on exceptionally long time frames (Monthly), but looking at the 4 hourly time frame and I’d be surprised if we’ll see new highs anytime soon.
My expectation would be a correction to come and test the middle of the old 4 hourly trading range in the 8350 to 8400 region as shown in this chart:
For now I’m undecided as to whether I should bank the DAX profits with a view to re-entering the trade again in the 8400 region as its difficult to be certain how deep the current correction may go so I’m just watching and considering things for now.
With the above 2 trades running I’ve not really considered any additional trades but will probably have a scan through the charts over the next couple of days and detail anything that looks interesting.
In the meantime, I hope you’re having a good Weekend.