It was my intention this Week to spend a fair amount of time studying and analysing the Markets in order to plan a good few swing trades. Unfortunately that never happened and with the failure of my main PC, I actually went 2 days without even looking at the Markets, instead, spring cleaning the House whilst waiting for a new PC to arrive!
Although I missed some great day trade setups on Indices, the USD:CHF long sat in the background accruing a fair few pips and only now have I had a chance to take a closer look at the chart.
With stops now running just a few pips above break even, here are the charts showing the latest Hourly and 4 Hourly developments.
I have to say, I love the fake break-outs you see following on from traditional Technical Analysis patterns, in this case a falling trend line on the 4 hourly chart. Price broke out to the upside and quite probably caught a few traders out when it not only failed, but broke down to new lows. Price has since broken back above the falling trend line in effect making a mockery of traditional TA. MACD on this time frame suggests there may be more downside to come before any positive divergence can be produced so I’ve placed stop losses at break even while monitoring the situation. A break above that 61.8% fib level would be great news but there’s no evidence of that being likely at this stage:
The Hourly time frame looks far more positive from a MACD perspective but we have clear resistance in the form of an old up trend line which could well be a turning point. If this trade is to survive we need to see buyers coming to the table quickly, otherwise the trade will have to be abandoned. Currently showing +100 pips on the position so I have a fair bit of room before having to make a decision, but if I’m to safeguard any of that profit a decision will have to be made in a timely manner.
The only other trade I have open at present is a DOW short but that’s only showing around 8 pips profit as of Friday’s close and I presently have no intention of running it as a swing trade as it’s simply an attempt to play the current fairly wide trading range, but will update here tomorrow if I chose to keep it.
Having not been trading as much as usual I found it interesting to find my last 16 consecutive day trades have all produced a profit, no losing trades at all. I think this is a record for me (previous record I’m sure was 14 trades) and it has left me wondering if being at the screen more affects my ability to stick to low risk trades. It probably does because there’s nothing more frustrating than sitting at the screen for a whole day and not getting a single day trading set-up and this of course has one entering trades almost for the sake of doing something!
In the meantime, I hope your trading is going well, and I hope I’ll be able to eventually provide more trading updates than I have been over the last few Months!