07 Apr This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 7th April 2013
This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I’ve carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I’ve still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management.
Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I’ll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I’ll just monitor it on a day by day basis.
By far my worst effort this Week is my attempt to get long GBP:CAD on the support level that’s held firm for the last 3 Years. The chart below shows the area where I entered the trade:
You might be thinking Wow, that was a great call seeing how price has since rallied 400 points from the low in just 2 days! Well, yes, there was nothing wrong with the call but unfortunately I entered the trade late in the evening, chucked on a 100 point stop loss to see me through till morning where I planned on re-evaluating the stop loss positioning in more detail. Unfortunately I was too late and got stopped out at the lowest pip before the rebound. In fact, I got stopped out 4 points lower than the lowest pip which suggests there was an 8 pip spread at the precise moment I got stopped out! Incredibly frustrating and a loss that I’m very unhappy about.
Just to rub more salt into the wound I entered a day trade DOW short at 14,606 Thursday evening. Following the experience with GBP:CAD earlier that day I decided to scrub that trade taking a small 6 point profit with a view to staying flat until after the job numbers on Friday. Had I have left that trade open, even with stop loss set for break-even, I’d have been looking at in excess of 150 points profit 15 hours later!
You can probably see my pain when you consider the short entry was taken in the red circle at the 15 minute 200 MA / triangle resistance, which was never threatened again thereafter:
As things stand in that DOW chart, this retest of the triangle break down area should be resistance so we might see another dip down on Monday.
So that’s my review of this Week and if nothing else it proves no matter how long you’ve been in this game and how much effort you put into it, the market must always be respected and serious consideration should be placed ahead of all actions you take particularly when it comes to stop loss positioning.
I hope your trading Week has been better! I know some of you took the GBP:CAD trade and are now showing huge profits but it probably isn’t going to be an easy trade to manage going forwards so it might be time to take half profits and run the 2nd half until things become clearer.
Enjoy your Weekend.