29 Jul This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 28th July 2013
A lot of indecision from me this Week!
The 2nd half of the EUR:AUD swing short was closed for a loss of -180 pips. Taking into account the +321 points taken on the first half of the trade, this gave an overall aggregate profit of +141 points. It’s a real shame this trade didn’t work out because technically everything looked good. Of course its possible that it will still reverse as the previous major swing high hasn’t been decisively taken out, but the chart does look much less bearish than it did when the trade was taken so probably best to be out in the short term.
I entered a GBP:CAD swing long on Wednesday following analysis detailed last Week but once in the trade I started to have doubts in the short term and took the opportunity to exit on a spike to take 60 pts profit. The trade would now be showing a loss so for now that was the right decision to make. In the meantime I’ll keep my eye on it ahead of another possible long entry. A clean break below the 4 hourly 100 MA will probably have me converting to the short side and if this does occur we can start speculating on a possible breakdown of the trading range that has held this market for the last 3 Years. If a breakdown does occur to the downside it could be quite powerful so definitely worth keeping options open on this one.
USD:JPY is another one where I think a good trade isn’t far away but so far its been too weak even to reach my desired short entry target (a back test of a rising trend line). This had me considering a long entry to trade it up to my short entry target but again price is looking too weak. No real signs of what the next direction may be at the moment so its another one to keep an eye on. 96.95 would be my line in the sand for bulls. Below here and we can look at the possibility of further weakness to come. Ultimately I’d like to see USD:JPY revert back to its very long term trend, which is down.
You may recall my analysis suggesting July as being a major trend changing Month, and historically this has been the case on 6 of the last 7 Years. For this trend to continue this Year Indices will need to reverse to the downside over the next couple of sessions. My system still remains short on FTSE with stops above the 2013 high, but this is not reflected in the U.S Indices. However, I do sense the markets are weakening and the chances of a correction in the very short term are increasing as more and more signals start rolling over. Ultimately though, price is king so its difficult to be confident without confirmation!
That’s it for now. I have found the markets increasingly difficult to predict over recent Months hence the lack of posts and trades but I’m sure there’s a new catalyst not too far away that will change this.
Good trading to you all.