This Weeks Swing Trading Round-Up

This Weeks Swing Trading Round-Up

This week has proven to be yet another week where all of the pre-planned trades that were taken played out perfectly. I don’t know how long this can last, but I’ve been saying that for weeks now so can only conclude that the inception of this blog has in some way disciplined me into only taking the absolutely highest probability trades. The only downside being that when everything plays out as planned it makes the blog a little uneventful with not a lot of new content to add mid week.

The DOW Versus AUD:CHF crash comparison played out perfectly on the hourly time frame though I kept that as a day trade as opposed to a swing trade.

I took the GBP:CAD range trade short as planned and the trade worked so well that on seeing 417 points profit in under 36 hours I just banked it without hanging around. Although it could still go much lower, I think theĀ juiciestĀ part of this trade is done and dusted for now.

I’m still holding the AUD:NZD swing long. It’s not a particularly nice trade to be in because one minute it can look really bullish, then the next minute it’s selling off fast. I did briefly move the stop loss below break-even to give it some breathing space, but soon raised it back up and wont be moving it again. The trade currently shows approx 120 pips profit. The main thing that’s stopped me bottling out of the position is the fact that due to the interest rate differential between the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar I’m getting paid a daily interest credit to hold the position so with stops at breakeven this trade cannot lose.

The EUR:GBP swing short also played out quite well. It was looking oversold on Monday so I closed half the position for a 177 point profit. The 2nd half was stopped out on a trailing stop loss for 30 points profit when BOE news caused a massive spike up on Thursday, however, the original swing trade set-up was still valid so I re-entered the position at an even better level than the first entry (0.8720) and hope to collect all those points all over again for a “free” 2nd go. The position goes into the weekend showing a 125 pip profit with stop loss now ready to move to break-even.

Finally, one trade I didn’t take this week was the Cable long (GBP:USD). It did re-test support as I thought it should, but I just didn’t feel comfortable about taking an entry for various reasons both technical and fundamental (More QE from BOE). As it turns out, the trade would be showing a nice profit had I taken it, but I’m still not convinced about the viability of the trade. I think it’s worth taking a look at this 4 hourly chart showing a perfect backtest of it’s down channel, but also a rally that has found resistance in the form of an unusual trendline. If you are familiar with Cable you will be familiar with it’s ability to find support and resistance at trend lines that seem to have no real foundation. This is a common trait of Cable and can get you into some great trades that the average Technical Analyst may miss altogether.

Let’s now wait and see which of these lines is going to give up first.

As for set-ups ahead of next weeks trading, there are a couple I’ve been working on but neither are quite ready to take yet but I’ll attempt to get a snapshot up on the blog prior to Sunday night’s open to give you a head start.

Everyone trades differently, so if you think you’ve seen a nice swing trade set-up that I’ve not yet covered on the blog feel free to post details of it in the comments section and I’ll be happy to run my ruler and crayons over it and if it’s worthy of discussion I’ll run a full post on it.

Have a great weekend.

9 Comments
  • bracke
    Posted at 15:30h, 12 October

    RS2000

    Ref USD:CHF

    4 Hour Chart – SP has broken under 100EMA and appears headed to uptrend line (running from August) which coincides with the 200SMA at approx 0.8757.

    Daily Chart – SP resting on 100EMA with 200 SMA also coinciding with lower uptrend line.

    So a couple of hundred points in the offing?

    I am tempted.

  • bracke
    Posted at 17:01h, 12 October

    I have held off.

    I want to see if it bounces off the 23.6% fib plus possible rise to top trendline at approx 0.9064.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 17:40h, 12 October

    Hi Bracke,

    Not sure about trend lines bracke as I have some suspicious spikes on my chart so unsure where to place the trend line.

    I have possible horizontal support at approx 0.8923 on my hourly chart.

    I have another line on the hourly chart at 0.8773. This line has been there for a long time so I’ve not re-checked whether it’s still a valid support, but interestingly it lines up perfectly with the 23.6% fib from the August lows to the recent highs.

    I would say it’s only a matter of time before that 23.6% fib gets a visit. I’m not sure of the path price will take to get there though. (Obviously down, but probably not in a straight line).

  • bracke
    Posted at 18:21h, 12 October
  • bracke
    Posted at 18:24h, 12 October

    RS2000

    I should have posted. Change the timeframe to 4 Hourly and also view Daily.

    Is it possible to amend a post after posting it? If so, how?

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 18:16h, 13 October

    Hi bracke,

    0.8923 did offer good support as I thought it might.

    On the hourly, my bias is slightly more bullish than bearish.

    Daily does need a deeper pull back, but maybe we will see a retest of the high’s first. That would be good because it would give another chance to get short and as price is trampling all over the place right now, we would have a better idea of where a 2nd sell off my find support.

    I can set it up so you can edit comments, but everything comes at a price, the more features I add, the slower the page load times become. So it’s a fine line to decide on. Also, only a few people are able to enter their own comments, most have to be approved by me first. With an edit feature I could approve users and posts, then they edit them all and post loads of spam. Spam is a problem on here, you’d be amazed at the number of spam comments I receieve each day for approval.

    Thanks for the chart. You can post actual charts in the comments section but it’s not user friendly. I might look into fixing this area too.

  • bracke
    Posted at 22:32h, 13 October

    RS2000

    Thanks for reply.

    I note it has dropped back into the down channel I posted and the hourly MACD suggests (to me) further downside.

    BTW Is that an MACD 3 push on the 4 hourly?

    No need to add edit I will just need to be more careful.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:09h, 13 October

    Yes it was a valid 3 push and the crossover would have had you short at the highest candle!

    I completely missed it. Should have just shorted it as soon as it opened on Sunday.

    Different time frames are giving me different signals on it at the moment and I simply don’t have enough ammo to make a directional call.

    If you have a directional belief I think you should trade it. Talking to me and I’ll just scare you out of the trade!

    For example….

    4 hourly broke out of it’s channel and now back in side with trend still down, but could potentially turn into a bullish falling wedge.

    Hourly could be a cup and handle, with the handle finding a floor at the 61.8% retrace of yesterdays low and todays high.

    A break below that 61.8% retrace would be a short….but then there is support 40 points below that.

    Daily looks like it needs down…

    Weekly has found support on the 50MA….

    I could keep going…..

  • bracke
    Posted at 18:05h, 17 October

    RS2000

    It is moving sideways on the Daily and is being supported at the 23.8 fib.

    Not trading it yet.