15 Oct My Full Swing Trading Watchlist Laid Bare!
As we are still in a situation where there remains a lack of very high probability trades that are both ripe and imminent, I’m going to run through the main part of my watchlist showing what I’m looking at right now, why I’m looking at it, and detailing in pictures the simplicity of the type of trading set-ups I trade.
By looking at simple channels, Supports and Resistances and Fibonacci levels we can generally gauge how market sentiment is likely to pan out once these levels are tested. Trading doesn’t really need to be much more complicated than this, however, when it actually comes to taking a position we need additional confirmations that we are about to take the right trade, and the following set-ups show the main ingredients but not those final confirmations we need to watch out for when risking our cash on a trade.
Using the information provided within these charts, combined with your own techniques, we should have some very nice moves coming up in the following Months, but it’s for you to decide how you wish to combine your analysis to give you the best chance of success.
A test of 1.5980 appears to be high probability. Not sure how price is going to get there and I missed out on my favoured long entry at 1.5350, so, without further long set-ups it may be time to wait for a short entry from resistance shown here:
I’ve been looking for a throw over of the down channel and a over shoot beyond the 61.8% fib level. We’ve now had this. A short position here could now be very close as both price and MACD are showing signs of rolling over. A pull back to the red circle would appear to be the likeliest minimal pull back outcome.
Upper down channel line currently being tested. It’s rallied harder than I expected and I’m not comfortable with taking a short entry from here, but would like to have a closer look when the gap at 123.27 is filled. This gap fill will probably see a pull back so it would be a high probability day trade, but in the bigger picture it’s not clear whether GBP:JPY can rally beyond this and up to 126.00
Like GBP:JPY price is now testing the upper limits of it’s down channel. I’m seeing bullish signals all over the place on Euro pairs and this is difficult to accept in view of the current Euro Debt Crisis. Just watching this for now, mainly to provide clues on what might happen to the technically more reliable GBP:JPY pair that I’m watching. I’d be amazed if that 61.8% fib level doesn’t get tested, and quite possibly beyond that because Euro pairs do tend to get attracted to the 76.4% fib level (not shown on this chart):
Looking for a spike to break resistance and take us to 1.2500 where I will consider entering short for a 500 point pull back to the 1.200 level:
I’ve been trading the short side of EUR:GBP quite a lot lately. It’s not achieved my ideal downside targets and managed to produce a rally over the last week. There is no denying the potential of a bullish wedge formation on the Weekly chart and this is something we need to keep an eye on. I’m concerned that the weekly 200MA has still not been properly tested so I’d be suspicious of an imminent rally from here. If it does rally imminently I probably wont get involved without that 200 MA being properly tested. I still have ideas for trading the short side of this pair but they are also on hold right now.
Another Euro pair that has been acting particularly bullish. This is most likely due to the massive short interest on this pair, simply too many bets on the same side of the trade. Whilst this short fuelled frenzy of a rally takes place, we can watch out for likely resistance in the 1.4030 area where I’d be very interested in entering short. Other levels worth looking out for are also shown on the chart.
Just keeping this on the back burner at the moment as a potential long term and large scale box trade set-up continues to form.
It would be great if this can keep dropping back to the support line shown on this chart. To get a freebie second go at this long trade would be a dream after the results of the first one:
Disappointed that I missed the planned short entry on this trade as I’d have been short right from the top. This pull back has more to go, but it’s also worth watching the channel on the 4 hourly chart (not shown), if this breaks down then I’ll wait for a failed retest to enter short. If the channel holds, we could see a double top which would most probably be another opportunity to get short. Just watching the various set-ups play out on various time frames for the time being. Also worth bearing in mind that EUR:USD and USD:CHF could well start moving inversely to eachother in view of the SNB Euro / Swiss Franc Peg. The hourly chart below also shows Friday closed with an hourly Candle close below support:
Historically I’ve only ever traded the short side of this pair, but we are now starting to see signs that the Macro trend really has changed to up. I’m interested in day trading this pair on the long side of any pullbacks with a view of turning it into a swing long. The chart does appear to signal that a double top or higher is likely, but there aren’t enough confirming factors to get me positioned right now. This weekly chart just shows a couple of scribbles as one of a few trading ideas I’m working on. The Weekly down channel has been abused quite a bit, so maybe it’s time for price to let go and start creating a more sustained and longer term up trend.
I remain long on this pair and finally price has broken beyond resistance. Another swing trading opportunity could present itself on an eventual pull back to support and confirmation of that support holding. I would like to add to my long position if this scenario plays out:
An area of resistance and an unfilled gap detail the area of my next planned trade. The more overbought price looks when it gets there, the better chance of the trade playing out:
Looks pretty bullish and has done through most of this recent leg up. Daily 100 MA is currently being tested but historically it’s unlikely that this alone is enough to reject a DOW rally. Therefore I’m interested in seeing 11,750 pretty imminently and ultimately a visit to 11,910 – 12,000 seems likely. The Weekly candle closed right at the Weekly 20MA so this could potentially be resistance. There are a few options I’m looking at for trading DOW over the coming week and most include a higher high but I still see a lesser possibility of the rally continuing in the early part of the week but the weekly candle ultimately closing red. Definitely one to guage intraday if you are not already positioned on the long side.
Remain aware that there is a gap at 11,134 and it’s almost without doubt that this will eventually get filled, just as the 10,461 gap from 2010 got filled during after hours in August, and then filled “again” during cash on 4th October.
DOW is very trade-able at the moment so don’t be afraid to ignore the state of the world economy and confidently trade the long side as the technical signals reveal themeselves.
This weekly channel made for some great trading throughout last year. It’s gonna take a while to materialise, but my next Crude Oil swing trade will be a short from the channel backtest circled in this chart:
So that’s it, pretty much everything I’m watching and I’m quite certain there will be some fantastic trading opportunities amongst this list. In the meantime it’s just a case of waiting for everything to align perfectly.
Not sure if I’ll be writing too many posts like this one going forwards…..it’s taken me ages to put all this analysis together and I had no idea what I was setting myself up for when I started the post!
In the meantime, I’m off for a drink!
Enjoy the rest of your weekend ahead of next weeks trading.