GBP:NZD Swing Long 4th Nov 2014

GBP:NZD Swing Long 4th Nov 2014

After some Months without seeing a single swing trade opportunity I felt comfortable with, I’ve finally taken the plunge with a GBP:NZD swing long.

Although its a choppy pair to say the least, the overall trend has been up for almost 18 Months now even though a glance at the chart doesn’t immediately suggest that.┬áVolatility aside, MACD and the moving averages do suggest a probable continuation of the ongoing move, which ideally will lead to a more sustained move higher.

With a wide stop loss presently set at 2.0282 I’m just hoping it’s wide enough to absorb the wild swings this pair tends to make.

A look at the Daily chart and the Fibonacci retracement of the current move – which is starting to look like a 61.8% rejection based on current price action, but I’ll continue to hold ahead of a 2nd attempt to move higher:

GBP NZD Daily 4th Nov 2014

Of all the time frames the Monthly does look concerning with long term resistance at the recent highs, but even that is over 600 points above the current print meaning a 2nd failed attempt would still be enough to take a fair profit from the trade. A Golden cross of the 20MA and 50MA may also be on the cards here although we have an entire Month to wait before finding how that pans out:

GBP NZD Monthly 4th Nov 2014

This trade idea is certainly a little hit and miss so the position size is small and after a 6 Month break from swing trading it should give me a feel for current FX market characteristics.

 

2 Comments
  • bracke
    Posted at 12:46h, 10 November

    Good day RS2000

    I hope all is satisfactory with you.

    You picked an ‘awkward’ pair to restart your fx trading. I think there were some easier ones you could have selected.

    My take on the price action is shown in the chart below. I think it is self explanatory.

    I hope it turns before it reaches your stop.

    “http://tinypic.com?ref=2w5j81i”

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:03h, 14 November

    Unfortunately this trade was stopped out 2.0282 for -310 points.

    Very quickly after entering the position price rallied approximately 300 points and it was difficult not to bank that and the only reason I didn’t close then was in an attempt to stay disciplined and see the trade through.

    Price is currently 300 points below the stop loss level. This just goes to show how wild this pair can be on a day to day basis.