GBP USD Long Term Triangle Update; 12th June 2013

GBP USD Long Term Triangle Update; 12th June 2013

Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I’ve felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither  are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.

But that is the name of the game. Habitually aggressive traders tend to take larger risks and make larger profits, but not many of them stay in the game for very long, but  if like me you trade with an extremely low risk outlook, you’ll spend a lot of time sitting on your hands waiting for the right trade to come to you.

Talking of waiting for a trade to come to you, here’s a GBP:USD set-up I mentioned 4 Months ago and even still the idea may fall flat on its face, but its getting very close to decision time now.

Price broke down from a triangle formation that’s been in the making since January 2009. Price is now close to retesting that break down level and this is often an area that can find very powerful resistance.

What’s particularly interesting about this is how the Monthly 20 MA, the triangle itself, a long term 50% fib level, and a short term 61.8% fib level (not shown on this chart) all converge at the same approximate price area of 1.5780

Over the coming days or Weeks I’ll be watching smaller time frames for clues that resistance may be found here with a view to entering a swing short and looking for a continuation of the macro down trend. Of course, the set-up may completely fail, but if this does play out, it could be a big one and with minimal risk:

GBP USD Monthly 12th June 2013

 

 

2 Comments
  • Last Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 17th June 2013
    Posted at 22:32h, 17 June

    […] GBP:USD remains at the top of the watch list and briefly entered the zone where I’ll consider entering a swing short. I don’t think there’s a great rush to jump into the trade considering my analysis is based on the Monthly chart. Ideally I’m looking for enough resistance in the area between 1.5751 and 1.5780 to force a reversal as detailed in this post. […]

  • This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up & This Year's Trading Regrets! 23rd June 2013
    Posted at 22:56h, 23 June

    […] GBP:USD The target entry price was anywhere between 1.5751 and 1.5780 for a swing short that could take GBP:USD back into its macro down trend. This is the chart from the original post: […]