GBP NZD Swing Long Set-Up

GBP NZD Swing Long Set-Up

I really like the look of this one.

5 Reasons why price will bounce from 1.9850 region.

  1. Trend line back test from previous break-out.
  2. A precise retest of the break-down level from the 2011 triangle
  3. 50% Fib retrace
  4. 100 MA
  5. 200 MA

And all of this on the DAILY time frame.

You could also argue that it’s a bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, though this isn’t confirmed as yet, and this particular pattern specific to this chart is one that could remain symmetrical, i.e, the right side of the chart continues down in a similar way to the rise on the left side of the chart.

Nonetheless, it’s a trade I’m interested in and I will be watching smaller time frames for a low risk entry in the 1.9850 region.

18 Comments
  • RazorSwingTrader
    Posted at 07:31h, 14 June

    I would say looking at this 61.8% level is where real support is.
    50% levels are where the retail gets in and unless its trending up it normally fails.
    So I would scalp trade the bounce and wait for the 61.8% level.

    Cheers
    Brent

  • bracke
    Posted at 11:41h, 14 June

    RS2000

    Thanks for the ‘heads up’ on this one.

    I am inclined to agree with Razor – Down to the 50%, retrace and then fall to 61.8% but I am a novice when it comes to Forex.

    What instrument do you use to trade this type of swing and what timeframe?

    My S Bet Co only offers a Rolling Daily on this pair and with a 14 point spread.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 22:24h, 14 June

    You could both be right about the 61.8% level receiving a visit. Incidentally that level also coincides with converging Weekly 20/50 MA’s which should also offer support.

    However, I will be less keen on the trade with Daily candles closing below the Daily 200 MA.

    It could be a complicated trade!

    bracke,

    One of my S bet companies runs this with a spread between 8 and 15 points depending on volatility, the other company, and the one I’ll most likely take the trade with is the same one you use.

    14 point spread isn’t too bad when you consider the average 1 minute candle is around 5 or 6 points. This pair easily moves 150 points or more per day which makes the spread fairly negligable for a swing trade

    My stops will be calculated dependant on where (if) I enter the trade, 1.9511 area is clearly solid support, so if the trade is taken nearer to that level, stops will be placed below it.

    If we see a confirmed reversal before reaching the 61.8% fib, then stops will probably be on a daily close below the low of the reversal bar.

  • bracke
    Posted at 14:16h, 15 June

    RS2000

    Thanks for reply.

    Would I be correct in thinking you would take the trade on a longer timeframe ie. not Rolling Daily?

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 19:05h, 15 June

    bracke,

    I keep taking swings on rolling daily’s by mistake / out of habit, but my intention would be to take it on a futures contract.

    Generally take AUD:NZD on futures (except when it’s positive interest rate differential) because it takes so long to go anwhere.

    But GBP:NZD can move so fast when you get it right that you can be out of the trade with 300+ in a couple of days. Therefore hard to gauge until actually taking the position.

    Reversal candle on GBP:NZD daily today, but not happy with MACD on the 5 min chart which may indicate lower prices ahead, therefore it will be a trade to consider next Week after general market moving news this Weekend.

  • bracke
    Posted at 12:09h, 17 June

    Thanks RS.

  • bracke
    Posted at 17:32h, 18 June

    It’s just about holding on to the SMA 200.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 17:56h, 18 June

    GBP:NZD swing long taken at 1.9765

    This entry is very risky as it is without confirmation.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:27h, 19 June

    Closed GBP:NZD swing for a couple of points on the basis of the weak Daily close.

    Will look to re-enter.

  • bracke
    Posted at 13:06h, 19 June

    RS2000

    It appears to be heading for the 61.8% fib at 1.9555. There has been previous support at this level.

  • bracke
    Posted at 13:10h, 19 June

    I should have added to the above post that the Weekly MACD suggests that although there maybe a bounce of 1.9555 further downside cannot be discounted.

    • bracke
      Posted at 23:08h, 20 June

      RS2000

      In your first post relating to this possible trade you gave a number of reasons why it would bounce from 1.9850 region. It hasn’t.

      You are still intending to take the trade so which TA reasons are you looking to occur to take the trade.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 12:48h, 23 June

    Hi bracke,

    Apologies for the delay in responding.

    I still feel that buying pressure has every chance of overtaking selling pressure at or near current levels so taking into account that my ideal buy level has thus far effectively been ignored by the market, I am still watching out for a higher low, a successful test of the 61.8% fib level (or 1.5910 horizontal daily support) suggested by yourself and razor offering strong support, or confirmation of support on the Weekly time frame from the converging 20/50 MA’s. Thus far the Weekly chart has provided this support, but confirmation is required next Week or in subsequent Week’s.

    As you know I took a risk and entered this Swing but closed it some hours later as confirmation wasn’t forthcoming and for me this is the key – I like the idea of the trade but I wont take any silly risks in pursuing it.

    Just a case of watching and waiting for now, but definitely remains one of my favoured swing candidates and certainly I wont consider shorting it for as long as Weekly candles are closing above those converging MA’s.

  • RazorSwingTrader
    Posted at 05:57h, 26 June

    Please post another chart of the latest action on the 61.8% level. :>

  • bracke
    Posted at 11:08h, 26 June

    RS2000

    Thanks for reply.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:38h, 26 June

    Hi Razor,

    Still watching GBP:NZD and waiting. Price currently in between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels, so currently awaiting further developments.

    I’ll post up a chart as soon as there’s further confirmation that the move I’m looking for is about to begin.

  • bracke
    Posted at 17:48h, 05 July

    RS2000

    This would have been a good trade but in the opposite direction ie. short.

    It looks like it is headed back to ‘base’ maybe a long when it gets there.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 01:29h, 08 July

    You are right bracke, it would have been a good short.

    I was just about to give up on the whole idea and admit defeat, then I spotted something new! Explained in the most recent post.