GBP NZD Analysis Ahead Of Long Entry For W/C 5th March 2012

GBP NZD Analysis Ahead Of Long Entry For W/C 5th March 2012

There are a few charts I’d like to post ahead of Sunday Night’s FX Market Open and I’ll start with GBP:NZD

If there’s one thing that can be said about the New Zealand Dollar, it’s been one of the best Trending Forex Pairs during recent times. I say the best, because although other pairs have trended reasonably well, the New Zealand Dollar does so smoothly without huge whipsaws. There are certainly a few NZD pairs that I regret not participating in.

For GBP:NZD the 15th Decmember 2011 high down to the 15th February 2012 low captured a 2000 point move with the largest retrace being just 350 points. Nice if you can get it!

For the last 3 Weeks price has been forming a possible bowl shaped rounded bottom. I do find these long winded rounded bottoms difficult to trust but the advantage of them being you can usually spot very quickly when your trade is wrong and get out with minimal damage.

The 4 hourly chart shows an attack at the previous swing high which now combines with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retrace and all moving averages now pointing up with support offered by the green 200 MA, alongside positive MACD divergence. The 38.2% Fib retrace would probably be a fair initial upside target with stop loss below 1.8760 depicted by the first higher low on the chart below:

The daily chart found resistance at the pink 50 MA on Friday, whilst the 20 MA is now turning up. It’s possible we may see consolidation between these 2 MA’s for a couple of days, but due to the trending capabilities of this pair it’s also possible that next Week’s direction will be cemented as soon as the Markets open – look at the lack of protruding wicks on the Weekly candle’s whilst it’s trending to get an idea of what I mean here.

Here’s the Daily chart:

Finally the Weekly chart which shows price within a long term falling wedge and long term positive MACD divergence.  MACD can diverge for a very long time and we are playing a counter trend move here, but if the counter trend move really does get traction we can keep an eye on this wedge as a guide:

8 Comments
  • NZD USD Analysis Ahead of Short Entry For W/C 5th March 2012
    Posted at 13:14h, 04 March

    […] discussed the Trending Characteristics of ┬áThe New Zealand Dollar in this previous post analysing GBP:NZD so I’ll get straight to the point on this one.NZD:USD is showing some fairly classic signs of […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:17h, 04 March

    Swing Long entered at 1.9098 initially with 200 pt stop loss.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 08:00h, 06 March

    This position is now closed at 1.9429 for + 330 pts.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 19:32h, 07 March

    Decided to have a 2nd go at this as I like the look of the retrace back to re-test the original breakout. Entered long at 1.9206

  • DOW, FTSE Intraday Charting And GBP:NZD Swing Update
    Posted at 21:38h, 07 March

    […] I’m posting anyway, I thought I’d tag this on the end….As you know, I entered a GBP:NZD swing long Sunday night shortly after the Forex Market’s opened, but my first target was hit so quickly […]

  • This Week's Swing Trading Round up;10th March 2012
    Posted at 16:08h, 10 March

    […] really banked the profits from one swing trade whilst the remainder are still open.Having bought GBP:NZD pre-break out almost as soon as Markets opened last Sunday Night it was refreshing to wake up Monday and see […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 21:18h, 14 March

    It’s quite possible todays high was a lower high ahead of consolidation that could eventually break in either direction.

    Therefore I feel it is sensible to close half of the long position (currently +161) and place stops below yesterdays low (approx -150). That would guarantee an overall profit on the trade whilst removing risk and avoiding silly mistakes caused by impatience.

  • This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up And DOW Analysis Re-Visited;17th March 2012
    Posted at 14:38h, 17 March

    […] make the decision to close this trade out for a 47 point loss.I took half profits (+161 points) on GBP:NZD on the basis that it’s mid Week rally could have been forming a lower high. That assumption […]