Charts To Watch This Week; GBP:NZD USD:CAD NZD:CHF

Charts To Watch This Week; GBP:NZD USD:CAD NZD:CHF

Whilst we are seeing a fair amount of intraday volatility and little in the way of solid long term trending I’m going to focus my TA on a shorter term basis sharing a few possibilities for the week ahead.

NZD:CHF

Daily and Weekly chart’s are not giving a clear picture of the medium term future of this pair but shorter, albeit weaker time frames are worth watching with a view to trading the short side (yet again – I love shorting this pair!) on an intraday basis that may or may not eventually yield a more sustained move to the downside. My interest lies in the fact that on a risk versus reward basis it’s hard to ignore the possibilities when stop loss levels can be run so tightly against a short entry.

4 hourly chart shows a bearish engulfing from resistance. A short entry would allow stoplosses to be placed above the (orange) 100MA  which is positioned 80 points above the current print. That stop loss would be trailed as the 100MA drifts down.

If I run this trade, I’d probably do so with an open target, simply trailing the stop.

GBP:NZD

If you are a little more bullish on the New Zealand Dollar and don’t fancy the above trade, you could keep your eye on this set-up which could yield a much longer term swing trade.

The previous Box Trade Swing short (that I missed taking) gave way to a 600+ point fall in price. Now we have a situation where a re-entry of this same set-up could give us another chance at this trade.

The daily chart shows a horrible bearish rising wedge formation heading straight into “Box Trade” resistance. One thing that must be pointed out is that MACD is not confirming the short side at present and it’s an indicator I have a lot of respect for. So, it’s one to watch for now as this presently bearish pattern starts to resolve itself. If price breaks above the rising wedge and finds support above it, I will very quickly become interested in taking a bet on the long side, mainly because I trust what MACD might be trying to say – It shows positive divergence on all Weekly, Daily and 4 hourly charts and a break above resistance would turn that into a buy signal for me.

On a shorter term basis there will most probably be an intraday short entry at the projected channel top combining with resistance in the chart below. Seeing how price reacts around this level will give a better indication of it’s viability for a longer term swing short.

Again, MACD is not confirming the short side so we have to be very careful in our management of this trade were we to take a short side position.

I will certainly update the blog if an when I decide to take a position whether that be short or long. But for now, something is brewing and I’m looking forward to eventually trading a nice move from this pair.

USD:CAD

4 hourly chart shows a nice bullish inverted head and shoulders here. This is likely to take a few more days of consolidation before a faster up move takes place, but again, another nice trading set-up to watch with the bias being on eventually taking a long position with stop losses placed beneath the head in the 0.9894 region.

I’d only be interested in entering long positions from the 1.0060 – 1.0090 as a way to minimise risk on this set-up, so a little bit of downside before a new rally commences would be ideal.

11 Comments
  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 22:32h, 06 November

    I’ve shorted the futures gap up on NZD:CHF at 0.7075

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 21:43h, 07 November

    I closed the NZD CHF short for -103 points. Somewhat suprised at the upside from a Technical point of view and I’ve not followed any news to understand whether there was an fundamental catalyst. I’ll sit on the sidelines for now and wait for the next signal, but assuming the gap I’m showing on my charts is a genuine gap, I’ve no doubt it will eventually get filled so it’s a case of waiting for the setup that will send price back down there.

  • ematrader
    Posted at 12:42h, 08 November

    Hi RS, I too got caught off guard by the strength of the CHF yesterday against the GBP. I took a short at the top of the daily range yesterday and was initially showing a good profit but price soon reversed and turned my paper profit into a paper loss. I’d set pretty wide stops above a previous swing high and luckily managed to close it this morning for break-even. If I needed reminding why I only swing trade with the trend this was it and I’m grateful for the getting out unscathed.

    I’ve since read comments that the SNB are still not happy with the strength of the CHF and are hinting that further intervention may be warranted should the CHF not weaken more in the weeks to come. Something to bear in mind at least.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:32h, 09 November

    SNB certainly take a more hands on approach than BOJ.

    I’ve had a bit of a bullish theme going on with GBP pairs thus far, especially GBP:USD

    Other than that, I’m finding it incredibly tough to find something I want to trade. There is simply nothing I like the look of right now.

    GBP:CAD is back at the top of it’s long term range, but this time I don’t fancy shorting it. In fact, I think it could be building up towards a massive breakout. If that starts to look more likely, I’d love to get an entry pre-breakout. It could turn into an 800+ point move, but it’s gonna be really difficult to nail a good, yet safe entry.

    I’ve no idea why stocks are rallying, but I’m presently long DOW with stoploss below 12,128 (A candle close below there gives me an intraday sell signal), and a limit order presently set at 12,234

    Also added to the GBP:JPY long tonight – will monitor this closely as I want stops at breakeven as soon as possible.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 11:10h, 09 November

    DOW long was stopped out on trailing stop when sell signal occurred at 12,128

    I’ve taken the GBP:CAD swing long at 1.6269 I’ve not actually looked at the chart in detail today, but the more I thought about the bigger picture that I detailed in my previous comment, the more I thought this is worth a go. Will try and post up an analysis tonight if there is anything worth showing.

    Still hanging onto GBP:JPY longs (original swing and scaled in position) which are very close to stop losses at the moment.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:16h, 09 November

    The scaled in GBP:JPY long was stopped out for -100 points.

    The 2nd half of the original GBP:JPY long was stopped on a trailing stop for +211 points.

  • ematrader
    Posted at 07:37h, 11 November

    Some bullish/ bearish piercing candles formed yesterday in various indices / FX markets signalling potential reversals. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see a push higher from now onwards and into the Xmas period in some of the world stock markets including FTSE and DAX. Not suggesting that it will happen but the clues are there. Remember always expect the unexpected in the markets.

  • Tom
    Posted at 22:28h, 12 November

    A google each day for “SNB’s Jordan”
    usually finds about 2 new articles.
    This one mentions a 1.2 cap was put on the price earlier this month.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:51h, 13 November

    The 1.2 cap was well publicised and I was fortunate enough to be short CHF at the time, but since that cap, I guess, unlike with BOJ, when SNB make a “threat”, the market listens!

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