16 Apr EUR:USD Brief Analysis; 17th April 2013
Unfortunately I’m too late posting this analysis because much of the shorter term move I was looking for took place before I had chance to write about it.
EUR:USD has been on the watch list ahead of a potential swing long for some Weeks now with an ideal long entry to be taken on a retest of 1.3000 from above following a rally from support in the 1.2750 region.
Over last couple of sessions it became less likely that price would sell off enough to test 1.3000 and in the event price only made it to 1.3022 which did not satisfy my plan for a pip perfect entry! I looked at the chart this morning with a view to taking the trade but other commitments kept me away until tonight where unfortunately 200 pips has already been added.
Anyway, all that aside, I’m still on the look out for entering long on the next retrace now a major trend change appears to have been confirmed.
The 4 hourly chart shows why 1.3000 was an important level:
The Daily chart shows what appears to be confirmation of a higher low in the 1.2750 to 1.2850 congestion zone/trend change region and potential continuation of the current rally. The major risk here is that a Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern could be in progress which wouldn’t have been such a risk if I’d managed to enter the trade this Morning as originally planned but now we’ll probably need a few days of price action to confirm the likelihood of this:
It may be too late for a safe entry into this move, but if conditions become ripe and I decide to enter, I’ll post details in the comments section beneath this post.