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January 29, 2013 23:33

Update To Previous USD:CHF Swing Long Analysis 30th January 2013

Posted in: CHF, USD
By:

You may remember the recent USD:CHF analysis where I’d been tempted with a swing long position but didn’t get a chance to enter the trade at my ideal risk/reward levels due to other commitments.

Since then I’ve continued to watch it develop as price retraced 61% of the move. The question is, is USD:CHF still a viable swing long?

The 4 Hourly chart shows a break out through the old down trend line and now a retest of that same line which happens to coincide with both the 200 MA and the 61.8% retrace of the recent rally.. Although I don’t think the chart looks particularly pretty, if support is to be found, then this is the price area to watch.

MACD doesn’t give a lot away, yes there are higher highs and higher lows, but the current status looks like it could go anywhere:

USD CHF 4 Hourly 31st Jan 2013

The Daily chart shows a similar situation. A longer term falling wedge is quite prominent here and by drawing the wedge onto the chart, the price pattern looks quite interesting, what with a couple of supports not much below the current price level which will certainly help with stop loss placement.

But remove those lines and all we have is a down trend which adds to the risk of buying here, but also adds significantly to the potential reward:

USD CHF Daily 31st Jan 2013

 

Over the next few days I’ll be keeping an eye on this chart with a view to catching early buying opportunities intraday. If the 4 hourly 200 MA lets go, then it might be best avoided until we see a decent break back above it.

For now, it’ll stay on the radar and if I take any positions I’ll update the comments section underneath this post.

4 Comments on "Update To Previous USD:CHF Swing Long Analysis 30th January 2013"
  1. Comment left on:
    February 1, 2013 at 01:40
    the_U_man says:

    Possible inverted head & shoulders being formed on USDCHF on the hourly? Bizarre how this did the exact opposite to EURUSD.

  2. .
    February 3, 2013 at 19:27

    [...] amusing was the USD:CHF set-up I’d been watching that not only ignored potential support areas I’d identified [...]

  3. .
    February 17, 2013 at 22:31

    [...] closed out the USD:CHF swing long having been frightened out by a break of the 4 Hourly swing low, it did recover in the [...]

  4. .
    February 25, 2013 at 23:28

    [...] previous Swing long detailed here and analysed here was closed out due to the lack of evidence that the upside move could gain further [...]

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