25 Feb Ongoing USD:CHF Analysis For Swing Long Re-Entry; 25th February 2013
As you will know from previous posts I’ve been following and trading USD:CHF a fair bit recently.
The previous Swing long detailed here and analysed here was closed out due to the lack of evidence that the upside move could gain further traction. Price did chop around a bit after closing that position, but ultimately did continue the upside move.
As mentioned in the Weekend update I re-entered a long position, initially taken as a short term trade covering 1 to 2 sessions, but on revisiting the chart after today’s activity I’m going to attempt holding out for a little more upside.
The evidence suggesting this move will continue isn’t overwhelming, but with a well defined stop loss level I think its worth pursuing.
The 4 Hourly chart shows that price has tested and found support from all Moving Averages which are all pointing in the right direction, whilst a clean break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level suggests a 100% retracement could be a decent short term target:
The Daily chart puts price bang on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement following the last major Daily Swing High. Although the long term trend still remains down, I like the fact that the green 200 MA resides close by and could be a target, whilst a break of today’s low makes an excellent short term stop loss level. In fact, today’s low came within 8 pips of my existing 60 point stop loss level of my 0.9293 entry:
I think the key to the success of this trade probably lies with tomorrow and Wednesdays price action. A Daily close below today’s open will concern me, possibly enough to dump the trade, so as things stand, it’s just a case of waiting and seeing.