General

First of all, Happy New Year to all who have followed the blog and particularly to everybody who keeps in touch with emails and suggestions about the site. As you know, 2014 was a quiet year on this blog not just because of commitments outside of trading and a stint abroad with no internet connectivity, but also because finding trade set-ups I felt confident about was a real struggle. Whilst I should apply my system to every trade, it just wasn't giving any signals on the charts I followed and traditional T.A became the favoured method, albeit sometimes unreliably.

Following a discussion on the ADVFN FX forum thread I thought I'd reproduce my post here so as to keep it for future reference. Please note that some of the statements herein are taken from a research paper written by William K.N. Chan, former Head of FX Strategy in HSBC Asset Management. I have a consistent swing trade win rate of around 75% and a day trade win rate of between 75% to 90% of all day trades taken over a typical Month yet the value of my account does not increase proportionally with that win rate because a fair percentage of my losing trades incur a loss greater than the gains made on an average winning trade.

An unreliable internet connection has kept me from Trading for yet another Week but suddenly today its started working fine again despite no work being carried out on my line. In view of the Weeks of torrential rain followed by a single sunny and very windy day one can only assume the problems could be weather related. One of the most common subjects I'm emailed about is that of creating a system to notify readers immediately when I enter a trade.

Over the last Week I've had significant problems with internet connection drop-outs which have prevented me from trading. Of the 3 potential trades in my previous post EUR:JPY soon became the favourite and an ideal short entry target was achieved on the spike following the Turkey interest rate decision. Unfortunately I didn't even have the bandwidth to log into my trading platform to enter the trade and then attempted to take the trade from my phone only to be blocked due to being "logged in elsewhere". That trade has since hit my downside target (1.47 region) and therefore the opportunity is missed.

Last Week's EUR:AUD short achieved target on Monday although I didn't bank profits at the target due to other commitments but managed to get the trade closed later in the evening for a 176 point profit which is a pleasing result for the first 2014 trade and made more pleasing by the fact that price reversed direction from exactly my target print.