CAD

I'm somewhat late posting details of this trade as it was entered by an electronic limit order at a time where I had no internet connection to tweet it live, although details of the trade possibility were posted on the ADVFN forum in advance. In short, here is what attracted me to this trade, entered at 1.4260:

In all honesty there still isn't much out there that's worth trading based on my low-risk approach but as I've not posted any updates for a Week here's a quick one just to show I'm still plugging away in the background waiting for opportunities. Last Week I mentioned a few trade possibilities and 2 of those played out well even though I didn't take them myself. The 3rd one was AUD:CAD for a swing short from the same 50% fib level in this chart although I did suggest it may take a while to play out.

As the Week began I felt quite content in continuing to run both GBP:CAD and DAX swing long trades but the short term picture for both has changed, drastically so for GBP:CAD. Being committed elsewhere on Friday I didn't even log into my account so you can imagine the shock when I logged in after market close to see GBP:CAD that had been showing a +300 pip profit now showing a -160 pip loss! It's unbelievable how much damage can be done to a great trade in a single day, and I absolutely didn't see it coming.

Just a quick post to say following on from previous GBP:CAD analysis I've entered a swing long position with stop loss set on a Daily close below this Week's low. I don't normally buy break-outs like this generally preferring to buy a back test of the break-out level but I miss so many trades with that strategy that I've just bit the bullet and entered long. After all, price has just broken out to 3 Year highs and it would be incredibly unfortunate if I've bought the top!

GBP:CAD is currently trading in the middle of its long term trading range but has shown some potential for a possible move from here to the top of its trading range which may provide a short term swing long set-up. The 4 Hourly chart shows the recent leg down to have found support at the 61.8% fib retrace from the last major swing low to the recent swing high. For a potential long entry this would likely become the area where stop loss positioning should be considered.

USD CAD caught my interest after the FOMC announcement tonight and on inspection I was surprised to see its been trending upwards since September of last Year.  In fact you could argue its been trending up ever since July 2011 although in reality its been pretty much range bound. The area around 1.0253 has been marked on my chart as S/R for a considerable length of time and its fair to say price has been through it in both directions numerous times before but breaks above that level do seem to coincide with short bursts of strength that propel it 150 - 200 points higher relatively quickly.

This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I've carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I've still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management. Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I'll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I'll just monitor it on a day by day basis.