Long On GBP:CAD Break-Out; 26th Sept 2013

Long On GBP:CAD Break-Out; 26th Sept 2013

Just a quick post to say following on from previous GBP:CAD analysis I’ve entered a swing long position with stop loss set on a Daily close below this Week’s low.

I don’t normally buy break-outs like this generally preferring to buy a back test of the break-out level but I miss so many trades with that strategy that I’ve just bit the bullet and entered long. After all, price has just broken out to 3 Year highs and it would be incredibly unfortunate if I’ve bought the top!

Here’s the latest Daily chart:

GBP CAD Daily 26th Sept 2013

A Daily close below 1.6395 on this Weekly chart will probably have me stopping the trade out:

GBP CAD Weekly 26th Sept 2013

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3 Comments
  • Olu
    Posted at 00:15h, 27 September

    I am changing my mind about gbpcad. I thought any breakout will just crash back into the channel but I am sensing this might just run and run

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 21:25h, 28 September

    I think it was fair to expect a breakout to be a fake out bearing in mind that’s exactly what’s happened for the last 3 Years.
    Part of what got me thinking this time was different was the new low that got briefly printed earlier this Year – it probably caught out a fair few bulls who decided to just give up on the long side, and rallies often seem to follow such situations.

    Furthermore if you ignore the last 3 Years and just look at the Daily chart from March 2013 until now, there was nothing that looked remotely bearish, and there was even positive MACD divergence mid-way through the rally between July and August. Positive MACD divergence is often used to try and catch bottoms, but its generally much more powerful mid-way through a rally.

    In theory after 3 Years of consolidation this rally should have legs, but GBP:CAD can be a choppy and unpredictable pair so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

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