18 Jul GBP CAD Swing Long Preview; 18th July 2013
GBP:CAD is currently trading in the middle of its long term trading range but has shown some potential for a possible move from here to the top of its trading range which may provide a short term swing long set-up.
The 4 Hourly chart shows the recent leg down to have found support at the 61.8% fib retrace from the last major swing low to the recent swing high. For a potential long entry this would likely become the area where stop loss positioning should be considered.
The 4 hourly 100 MA is currently providing resistance so its a small sell off from here that could provide an ideal entry price, possibly around the 1.5720 region if price falls back a little further. The first initial upside target would then be for an underside test of the green 200 MA.
As you can see from the chart the correction has been fairly large and if price drops off much further it may turn out that we have a trend change so its quite important to get the best possible entry here to minimise the potential loss if the trade fails:
On the Daily chart the various moving averages are coming together from both above and below the current price print adding to the possibility of some kind of triangle formation whilst bulls and bears battle it out ahead of a directional break-out.
MACD looks quite likely to cross upwards which may support a move upwards on price:
All in all its not an obvious set-up but there are subtle signs of a potential move higher and quite often I find such situations more attractive than “obvious” trading set-ups because more often than not, the obvious set-ups find a way to catch you out!
If I take this trade I’ll update the comments section beneath this post and enter the trade into the trades log.