EUR CAD Above 4 Hourly 200 MA For Swing Long; 22nd Nov 2012

EUR CAD Above 4 Hourly 200 MA For Swing Long; 22nd Nov 2012

Following on from this post where discussion surrounded trading the 4 Hourly 200 MA, I used EUR:CAD as an example of a potential future swing long.

Price is now above the 200 MA and by midday we should have a good picture as to whether we have confirmation for a continuation of it’s recent rally where a new long position can be taken.

If I take this trade, the analysis behind it will be solely based on 200 MA, with no other factors being taken into consideration. In a way, it’s a simplistic view and I’ve not traded this method enough in the past to really understand whether it’s profitable in the long term.

Here’s the latest 4 hourly chart showing the current candle above the 200 MA, but right now there’s no definite confirmation it will stay there. By morning things should be clearer:

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6 Comments
  • Andy Murrell
    Posted at 13:32h, 22 November

    Have you noticed EUR/USD and the DAX are both at the same 4h 200 MA cusp?

    Both may show further confirmation by this afternoons 4pm candle.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 17:39h, 22 November

    I entered long on EUR:CAD this morning (posted live on ADVFN, but didn’t get a chance to post here) from 1.2824 with stops currently set on a candle close below 1.2650

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 17:45h, 22 November

    Andy,

    The difference with DAX and EUR:USD is that the 200 MA for these is potential resistance.

    In these circumstances I’d normally be looking to short the 1st or 2nd 4 hourly candle close above the 200 MA, and look for a break back below it.

    FTSE is in the same situation, whereas DOW has only retraced to it’s 100 MA, this scenario is not uncommon as DOW will regularly overshoot on both the upside and the downside meaning it has further ground to recover.

    For all Indices and EUR:USD, I’d probably be looking to short for another sell off, and then to watch for a higher low before confirming whether the correction has finished.

  • This Week's Swing Trading Round Up; 25th November 2012
    Posted at 00:21h, 26 November

    […] 25th November 2012 Posted in: General By: RS2OOOThe only new Swing trade taken this Week was the EUR:CAD swing long which I’ve held over the Weekend. The trade is based solely around the 200 MA on […]

  • This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up; 1st December 2012
    Posted at 23:53h, 02 December

    […] time I continue to watch and wait.2 trades I currently hold include a EUR:CAD long and a DOW long.EUR:CAD was specifically based around entering a trend using support from the 200 MA on the 4 hourly time […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:05h, 05 December

    Decided to close the EUR:CAD swing long at 1.3010 for +186 pts.

    Price is in a previous congestion zone and the trade has had a good run. As I’ll be having a couple of Weeks off from this Weekend, now seemed a good time to bank the trade.