23 Jan AUD JPY Added To Watch List – Price at Inflection Point
Still not seeing any swing set-ups that are showing conviction but there are a few that could materialise over the next day or two.
In the meantime I’ve added AUD:JPY to my watch-list because it sits at important levels on all time frames. There’s no certainty right now as to which direction I’m going to trade it, if at all, but it’s one of the more interesting long term charts at the moment and I reckon there will be some nice trades coming along soon.
The 4 hourly chart shows a triangle. I’m not sure where the upper line originated but it’s been on my chart for many Months. The pattern is similar to the GBP:JPY one I posted a short while back and that broke the upside of it’s triangle and then rapidly collapsed. A pull back that finds support at the 79.75 level may have me interested in the long side:
The daily chart shows a 2nd attempt at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, this time with a higher high but with the 200 MA likely to stall it. If price doesn’t pull back immediately then I’d be interested in buying a future pull back that finds support at this combined fib/MA level:
Zooming out on the Daily chart and we can see that price has traded within the boundaries of a triangle for considerable time:
The Monthly chart shows a higher high at the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance and a marginally higher low and bullish engulfing candle from the last low:
Moving right out to the Yearly chart and we’ve potentially got a 2 bar pull back with the current bar seemingly finding support on the 20 MA:
In conclusion we can see that price is at an important juncture on almost every time frame. We have everything in place to precipitate a breakout followed by a long term rally, however as we’ve done our homework, signs of failure at this important juncture could have us comfortably entering the short side at a very early stage.
If the long entry plays out we could have an ultimate target of approx 85.00 based on the daily triangle and if the short side plays out I’d probably be looking at targeting the unfilled gap that you can see in the top daily chart at the 75.50 region. So whichever way this goes there should be a potential 500 pips reward.