30 Nov AUD CHF Swing Short Update
It’s unfortunate that the AUD:CHF swing short was stopped out for a 100 pip loss making this trade the 2nd official losing swing trade since blog inception. As and when time allows I will re-evaluate the whole set-up that originally got me into the trade in order to find ways of avoiding a similar loss, but in all honesty, I’ve taken many winning trades from almost identical set-ups so might have to just call it a bad trade.
In the meantime, I still believe that the move I originally traded for will eventually take place so I’m still keeping a close eye on it for the next reversal set-up, but we must appreciate the fact that the trend is certainly up, and thus far it’s quite a strong trend.
I’ll leave you with this chart which shows another simple example of a high probability reversal set-up regularly seen on 4 hourly FX charts. Note that it is more common for the first trend line back test to get rejected, then consolidate before rallying for a 2nd back test higher up some time later. Any short entries taken at the first failed back test therefore need to be monitored closely and wisely: