November 2011

It's unfortunate that the AUD:CHF swing short was stopped out for a 100 pip loss making this trade the 2nd official losing swing trade since blog inception. As and when time allows I will re-evaluate the whole set-up that originally got me into the trade in order to find ways of avoiding a similar loss, but in all honesty, I've taken many winning trades from almost identical set-ups so might have to just call it a bad trade.

As recently discussed, AUD:CHF has been on my watchlist for a swing short entry for some time, just waiting for the ideal set-up to materialise allowing for a really low risk short entry. Unfortunately, when the ideal entry occurred it did so overnight and by following morning a good chunk of the initial move had already taken place therefore skewing the ideal risk vs reward parameters.

The main theme this Week has continued to be shorting strength intraday on Indices. It would have made a lot more sense to have just stayed short from the beginning, particularly as the whole topping process had been a "lead" we'd been following from the outset. But, if you yourself are a conservative trader, always trying to minimise risk, then I guess you'll understand where I'm coming from and how difficult it can be to commit to a particular direction during extremely volatile times.

AUD NZD brings back some good memories of the earliest days of this blog! At the time I saw the upside potential on this pair there wasn't much else around in the way of high probability trades. Even this swing long was a little nerve racking early on as it just took so much time to do anything, only being kept in the trade by the fact that I was getting paid positive interest due to the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.

Isn't it funny how Weeks have gone by and I've struggled to find anything worthy of posting, then all of the interesting set-ups arrive at once! So, just before signing off for the evening I just wanted to present this FTSE 4 hourly chart. It can be mentally challenging to enter trades like this when the press is plastered with bearish news, but the last couple of years should have conditioned us to ignore the news because we all know, no matter how bad the news