It has been a Week since my last Blog post and the drop in traffic to the site after 3 or 4 days without an update is fairly significant, but please remember, I only want to talk about stuff that’s worth talking about with a view to an imminent trade. I go through many charts each day and do miss a fair few set-ups that turn out to be great ones but don’t see a lot of point in talking about great trading set-ups unless I’m prepared to put my own money on them. I’d rather do this than flood the site with advice or recommendations that I simply don’t feel absolutely confident about investing my own money into.
This leads me onto the EUR:NZD swing long that has turned out to be a great trade over a relatively short period of time with half profits being taken at the first target of 1.5798 for +243 pts, and the 2nd half closed at my final target of 1.5914 for a profit of 359 points. This gives an aggregate overall profit on the trade of 301 points which I’m quite satisfied with considering the run of fairly small profits I’ve taken so far this Year.
This EUR:NZD chart shows the target levels, the first being a gap fill and the second being a level of resistance at 1.5906:
Whether it would have been sensible to just trail the stop on the 2nd half only time will tell, but arguably I’ve a good overall track record of nailing targets so generally once achieved I’ll close the trade and forget about it.
Gold still remains the most regrettable trading decision of the Year…… After 2 Weeks of going nowhere I gave up on it for a tiny 32 points profit, and here we are a further fortnight later with price 1200 points lower than my entry! So frustrating!
I still think the original ‘crash’ low will be taken out too, even if only briefly.
Moving on to currencies and AUD has been a great one to watch recently. In fact I was very close to shorting AUD:CAD a couple of Weeks back but was put off the idea due to perceived volatility that may occur with Stephen Poloz as the new Governor of the Bank of Canada.
That aside the Austrailian Dollar is looking particularly oversold right now and a number of pairs are at levels ideal for a rebound of some type which I may look to trade over the coming days. Here’s a few AUD charts of interest.
With price at the bottom of its long term range this will be worth watching with a view to trading a rebound if this support can hold:
There could be a decent rebound from this falling channel, the prospect of which being supported by Positive MACD divergence:
This higher high looks a bit suspicious to me and if we can see a doji or 2 here over the next few days I may be interested in a short entry targeting the 2 highlighted levels:
Indices have been in a world of their own recently and if you’ve been consistently long you’ve obviously done very well. I tend to day trade Indices rather than Swing trade them unless a long term set-up is really compelling.
This long term Monthly ascending triangle on DAX looks stunning and I would be interested in buying a retest of the break-out level:
Moving right out to the very short term, I’ve been day trading this 5 minute DOW chart (in conjunction with channels on the Hourly chart which I wont discuss here right now) and again, we have an ascending triangle break-out here as well and for my next trade I’ll be looking at the possibility of 15,302 becoming a future Support/Resistance level. If price breaks down and goes straight through it I’ll probably consider the break-out as a fake out and switch to the short side:
So in conclusion its fair to say I’ve missed some great trading opportunities but was quite pleased with the EUR:NZD outcome. Going forwards I think there will be some scraps available through trading some of the above mentioned AUD set-ups over the coming Week.
In the meantime I hope you’ve had a great trading Week and enjoying this sunny Weekened!
Having started the Week with absolutely no idea how things were likely to pan out it seems surprising that I’ve now got a bulging watch list! Strange how it works out.
Other than the NZD pairs discussed earlier in the Week, nothing is quite ready to talk about in detail [...] Continue Reading…
Following overnight news that RBNZ have been selling NZD due to their belief its over-valued with a promise to continue intervention as necessary, I decided to take a closer look.
GBP:NZD
When trading this pair I find MACD very helpful. With regards to the long side, I would analyse as follows.
Cons:
The Weekly [...] Continue Reading…
Apologies for being a little late with this Week’s round-up but there isn’t really a lot to say.
There’s presently nothing on the watch-list aside from day trading set-ups that can be considered high probability for swing trading. A lot of my work had been based around the possibility that [...] Continue Reading…
The first trading decision I made this Week has constantly haunted me since. After 2 Weeks sitting in the NZD:CHF swing long with no results to speak of I decided enough was enough and set the stop loss to break-even. That decision was made around 5 hours before it [...] Continue Reading…
Just a quick post to make you aware of this set-up if you’ve not yet seen it.
As simple as the set-up looks, its worth watching because such trades can deliver significant Risk Versus Reward ratios based around the ability to quickly spot if the trade isn’t going to work [...] Continue Reading…
Sometimes the Markets get the better of me and no matter how much I analyse the situation there just doesn’t seem to be an answer that can prevent the same occurrence in the future. Such an occurrence arose today with the NZD:CHF swing long.
This is the 2nd swing long [...] Continue Reading…
It’s been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes.
After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I’ve since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can [...] Continue Reading…
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