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GBP:NZD Swing Long 4th Nov 2014

After some Months without seeing a single swing trade opportunity I felt comfortable with, I’ve finally taken the plunge with a GBP:NZD swing long.

Although its a choppy pair to say the least, the overall trend has been up for almost 18 Months now even though a glance at the chart doesn’t immediately suggest that. Volatility aside, MACD and the moving averages do suggest a probable continuation of the ongoing move, which ideally will lead to a more sustained move higher.

With a wide stop loss presently set at 2.0282 I’m just hoping it’s wide enough to absorb the wild swings this pair tends to make.

A look at the Daily chart and the Fibonacci retracement of the current move – which is starting to look like a 61.8% rejection based on current price action, but I’ll continue to hold ahead of a 2nd attempt to move higher:

GBP NZD Daily 4th Nov 2014

Of all the time frames the Monthly does look concerning with long term resistance at the recent highs, but even that is over 600 points above the current print meaning a 2nd failed attempt would still be enough to take a fair profit from the trade. A Golden cross of the 20MA and 50MA may also be on the cards here although we have an entire Month to wait before finding how that pans out:

GBP NZD Monthly 4th Nov 2014

This trade idea is certainly a little hit and miss so the position size is small and after a 6 Month break from swing trading it should give me a feel for current FX market characteristics.

 

Posted In: GBP, NZD
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The Efficacy of using Stop Losses: 11th May 2014

Following a discussion on the ADVFN FX forum thread I thought I’d reproduce my post here so as to keep it for future reference. Please note that some of the statements herein are taken from a research paper written by William K.N. Chan, former Head of FX Strategy in HSBC […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: General
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Update To AUD:GBP Analysis; 27th April 2014

Having previously discussed a long term AUD:GBP set-up in this post in its earlierst stages back in February it’s time for an update as price action continues to take the support the trade idea.

This trade could be the pre-cursor of a future box trade meaning this is quite a […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: AUD, GBP
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Belated Update, Nasdaq and USD:CHF; 14th April 2014

Apologies again for taking so long to provide an update, just haven’t had the time to concentrate on swing trading.

The last swing trade taken for the blog was the AUD:CAD swing short which and this was stopped out on the day it printed its high prior to the small […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: AUD, CAD, CHF, SPX, USD
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GPB:CAD, AUD:CAD & EUR:CAD Analysis; W/C 24th March 2014

Following a sustained weakness in the Canadian Dollar a number of CAD pairs are showing signs of exhaustion which happens to coincide with Fibonacci retracement levels and areas of potential short to medium term resistance.

In particular there are 3 pairs that have my interest so I’ll start with the […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: General
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Gold, EUR:USD And USD:CHF Analysis; 10th March 2014

Firstly an update to my previous post where I cited GBP:NZD as the favoured swing trade from my watch list. Yet again it performed as expected but yet again I didn’t enter the trade due to my focus being elsewhere. However, it may not be over for that pair […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: CHF, Commodities, EUR, USD
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Update To 10th Feb Trading Plan; 23rd Feb 2014

As you’ll remember in my previous post of 2 Weeks ago I gave details of 5 currency pairs each demonstrating early stages of set-ups I tend to follow before entering a trade.

As things stand I’ve not entered trades in any of them as yet. For one of them I […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD
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Swing Trading Preview & Twitter Updates; W/C 10th Feb 2014

An unreliable internet connection has kept me from Trading for yet another Week but suddenly today its started working fine again despite no work being carried out on my line. In view of the Weeks of torrential rain followed by a single sunny and very windy day one can […] Continue Reading…

Posted In: AUD, EUR, GBP, General
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